It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post.

[Lorake]

according to this you have a 4% chance to get targetted a million times in a row.

No, according to this, for a single person to get targetted X amount of times in a row, given the single person it targets does not matter, and 100% = 1, a person has a .04^(X-1) chance of being targeted X times.

so.. when X = 1 ... a single person has a 100% chance to be targeted 1 time? WOO

Considering the ability has to target someone, when X = 1 then yes it's 100% obviously. It's pretty safe to say, since Anub has never NOT chased someone in P2. It'd probably be safer to say that's the chance Anub has to chase the same person constantly, given he doesn't care which person he picks to chase constantly.

He's actually rediculously close. It's 0.04^(X), for all X greater than 0 and for the single case. The odds of a person being followed once in a single P2 is 0.04^(1) * (1-0.04)^2 ~ 3.7%, followed twice in a row is 0.04^(2) * (1-0.04) ~ 1.5%, followed all three times is 0.04^(3) ~ lolz blizzard hates you. Assuming nobody fucks up and there's only two ice patches hit.

It gets even better if you look at two phase 2's, but I obviously hate math.

Where are you coming up with 1-.04 off in lala land Steke. There are only two events being factored in, being chased and not being chased. You don't need to worry about the not chase cases, since those break our conditions. Thus 1-.04 = .96 chance of not being chased, we don't care. Clarify where you derive 0.04^(1) * (1-0.04)^2 ~ 3.7% since if you sum it by 25, it's not 100% total probability, which means there's a probability he does not chase anyone in raid at all, which is an event that does not exist.